Tuesday, December 15, 2009

LONDON (WEST END) AGAIN WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE OFFICE MARKET; TOKYO’S INNER CENTRAL MARKET RANKS SECOND

CB Richard Ellis Group, Inc. Report Finds Global Rents Continue Decline

London’s West End is again the world’s most expensive office market, according to CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) Global Research and Consulting’s semi-annual Global Office Rents survey. Tokyo’s Inner Central has slipped to second place, followed by that city’s Outer Central market. Hong Kong’s Central Business District (CBD) and Moscow are fourth and fifth respectively in the CBRE report, which tracks office occupancy costs in nearly 180 cities around the globe.


Office markets worldwide are experiencing declines in prime office occupancy costs. The year-over-year change in prime office occupancy costs of the 179 markets monitored revealed an average drop of 7.7% worldwide over the 12-month period ending September 30, 2009 (in local currency and on an un-weighted average basis). The majority of markets – 131 markets in total – experienced a year-over-year decline including nearly 50 which saw rents tumble by double-digit percentage-points.

Many of the world’s bellwether financial centers are at the top of the list of fastest changing markets, including Hong Kong Central CBD(-40.7%) and New York, Midtown(-29.7%) along with emerging markets such as Ho Chi Minh City(-45.4%) and Abu Dhabi(-38.6%). Kiev led the world with the largest year-over-year decrease in office occupancy costs, falling 64.6% from year-ago levels.

“While there are signs that commercial real estate values are stabilizing in some markets in Asia and parts of London, underlying property fundamentals are still weak,” said Dr. Raymond Torto, CBRE’s Global Chief Economist. ”However the office market may be on the cusp of moving from intensive care to the stabilization stage - the first step to getting back to good health.”

Forty-one markets experienced positive growth. Aberdeen, Scotland and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil both grew by more than 10% as not all markets have been as affected by the decline in global demand and demand for office space has proven resilient in some areas due to the local market dynamics.

Office occupancy costs measured in U.S. dollars are affected by changes in the dollar’s value versus the respective local currency. Hence, office occupancy costs when converted into U.S. dollars are driven by both the local market dynamics of supply and demand, as well as currency changes.
Asia-Pacific

Tokyo (Inner Central) was Asia’s most expensive market with an occupancy cost of THB 5,130 per square meter per month (US$172 per square foot per annum). while that city’s Outer Circle market was second with occupancy costs of THB 4,157 per square meter per month (US$139 square foot per annum). Hong Kong (CBD) follows with occupancy costs of THB 4,113 per square meter per month (US$138 square foot per annum). Mumbai and New Delhi were the other two Asia-Pacific markets in the world’s top 10 most expensive cities roster. Bangkok, one of the cheapest market, was ranked at 151st out of 179 markets surveyed with occupancy costs of THB 694 per square meter per month (US$23 square foot per annum), followed by Jakarta ranked at 177th with the lowest occupancy costs in Asia at THB 481 per square meter per month (US$16 square foot per annum)

For the Asia Pacific region, the office markets that experienced the largest decreases include Singapore (-53.4%), Ho Chi Minh City (-45.4%), as well Hong Kong which declined over 30% in the past year. The Asia-Pacific region had 17 cities with double-digit declines in office occupancy costs.
Europe

London’s West End was the world’s most expensive office market at THB 5,525 per square meter per month (US$185 square foot per annum). Moscow was second in Europe with occupancy costs at THB 3,932 per square meter per month (US$132 square foot per annum). Dubai, Paris and the City of London all were in the top ten most expensive markets.

Kiev led the world with the largest year-over-year decrease in office occupancy costs, falling 64.6% from year-ago levels. Other markets in Europe that are experiencing the largest decreases include Moscow, Oslo, Warsaw and Dublin. The EMEA region had 17 cities with double-digit declines in office occupancy costs.
Americas

Two cities in Brazil -- Rio de Janeiro and São Paolo -- have supplanted New York’s Midtown as the most expensive office location in the Americas. Rio de Janeiro’s occupancy costs of THB 2,600 per square meter per month (US$87 square foot per annum), was good for twelfth place on the global list, while São Paulo came in at 16th globally with occupancy averaging THB 2,451 per square meter per month (US$82 square foot per annum). New York’s Midtown’s market has dropped to third in the Americas and 24th globally with occupancy costs of THB 2,062 per square meter per month (US$69 square foot per annum).

Boston’s CBD led the Americas, with a decline of 33.9% year-over-year, followed by New York’s Downtown and Midtown markets. Fifteen markets in North America posted double-digit declines. Meanwhile, Latin America held up stronger than the rest of the world, with only six cities registering a decline, including a 6.3% decrease in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Moody's says newly listed Chinese property developers face challenges

Moody's Investors Service says that eight major Chinese property developers succeeded in substantially enhancing their capital bases and liquidity positions during September-December


2009 with a total raising of HK$38.5 billion (US$4.9 billion) through IPOs on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, but these improvements to their financial fundamentals could prove short lived.

"Debt leverage is likely to rise again and exceed the levels seen at the time of the IPOs as the sector continues with its ingrained strategy of pursuing high growth and bigger scale," says Peter Choy, a Moody's VP and Senior Credit Officer.

"It was common for the debt to total capitalization of those developers already rated by Moody's to increase -- some by 10-15% -- in the 2 years after their IPOs, and such a similar trend is therefore expected for most of the recently listed developers," says Choy.

"Most usually, funds are spent on the expansion of land banks and larger scale developments, and experience indicates that Chinese developers generally come over budget in their land acquisitions," says Choy.

Choy was speaking on the release of a special comment -- authored by him and Kaven Tsang, a Moody's Assistant Vice President and Analyst -- on the implications of recent IPOs by Chinese property developers.

"Once their listings are complete, developers will experience -- in line with past examples -- strong shareholder pressure to grow," says Choy.

"As a result, the newly listed companies are likely to see debt leverage increase over the next 2 years."

Even though the Chinese real estate market in 2010 is expected to be stable, conditions will not be strong enough to support the very aggressive targets set by the newly listed companies, and their reliance on strong pre-sales to reduce their borrowing needs may prove misplaced, the report says.

In addition, Chinese banks will likely strengthen their capital bases and reduce loan growth in 2010 to help reinforce the stability of the banking system; and, as such, availability of mortgage finance to property purchasers will not be as strong as in 2009, the report says.

Thursday, November 19, 2009

SC Asset launched 3 new projects in Q4 Y2009 and its “SC Parade” the privilege campaign to be held on November 2009.

SC Assets announced its latest investment of over 1,300 million Baht to develop 3 new high-end projects , for serve the housing demand in 4Q Y2009. The three new 2009 series are “Bangkok Boulevard Kaset-Navamintra”, a luxurious 3-story detached housing project; “Life Bangkok Boulevard Ratchavipha”, a stylish 2-story detached housing project; and “Work Place Ratchada-Ramindra”, a special-designed home office project. In addition, it will also launch “SC Parade” the privilege marketing campaign on November 8, 2009, which is expected the total sales revenue of more than 300 million Baht.


Mr. Kree Dejchai, Chief Operating Officer, SC Asset Corporation Pcl.,discloses about the company’s project development plan in Q4 Y2009 that SC Asset will continually plan new project developments in accordance with its 2009 operating plan. Highlights will mainly be with projects on high potential locations in all market segments, including high rise and low rise. The company has a plan to launch 3 new projects with a combined value of over 1,300 million Baht.

1.“Bangkok Boulevard Kaset-Navamindra”, The luxurious 3-story detached housing project, which is located on an 18-rai plot of land on Ladplakao Road, will have a combined value of 740 million Baht. Developed under “Modern City Resort Style” concept to allow its urban residents to stay closer to the nature, the project will have only 74 units. With a starting price of only 10.9 million Baht, each unit will have four bedrooms, 5 restrooms, green room and family room to serve the lifestyle of each family member – all within a combined usable area of approximately 260 SQM. The project is most outstanding in its prime location, which is right on main road and well connected to various routes, e.g. Ramindra, Kaset-Navamindra and Paholyothin. It is fully equipped with basic facilities and infrastructure, swimming pool, Wi Fi fitness center and safe with triple security system.

2.“Life Bangkok Boulevard Ratchavipha”, The stylish 2-story detached housing project, which is outstandingly located on a 16-rai plot of land right on Pibulsongkram Road, will have a combined value of 450 million Baht. Developed under “Modern Life in Urban Natural” concept, the project will have only 69 units. With a price range of 5.9 – 8 million Baht, each unit will have 3 bedrooms, 3 restrooms, living room, dinning room and separate drawing room, all within an area of 50 square Wah onwards. Designed to be airy and spacious, all units will come with curtain wall windows to allow its residents to absorb a full natural feeling of its landscape. Project facilities include a luxurious club house, swimming pool, green garden and Wi Fi fitness center.

3.“Work Place Ratchada-Ramindra” , The luxurious home office is the only project of its exclusive in Ratchada-Ramindra, which is Bangkok’s top potential location and future business center. Located on a 4-rai plot of land right on main road, it will have only 20 units and a combined value of 180 million Baht. With a starting price as low as 8 million Baht, this 4-story home office will be 6 meters wide. Designed to be both airy and spacious in order to maximize its business potentials, it is, however, planned in a Privacy Cluster Zone to optimize privacy. With a common parking lot able to accommodate 50+ cars, the project is safe and sound with access card control system. It is conveniently networked with many main routes, e.g. Kaset-Navamindra, Ramindra, Sukapiban 1-2, West Outer Ring Road and Ekamai-Ramindra Express Way.

Besides the three new projects launching, SC Asset will be held the marketing activities in order to stimulate consumer purchasing power. It is launching “SC Parade” campaign on November 8, 2009, which is a complete showcase of its eight quality projects featuring detached houses, townhomes, and condominium. These projects, which will either open its new phases or new designs and functions, will be accompanied by very privilege offers namely “SC Package to visit the 8 Wonders of the World” The campaign is forecasted to generate many visitors and the total sales revenue of over 300 million Baht.

The eight quality projects include (1) Grand Bangkok Boulevard Ratchada-Ramindra with prices ranging from 15 – 25 million Baht (2) Bangkok Boulevard Rajapruek-Rama V with prices ranging from 17 – 30 million Baht (3) Life Bangkok Boulevard Petchkasem 81 with starting price of 5 million Baht, (4) Vista Avenue Petchkasem 81, 2-story townhome with starting price of 2.4 million Baht (5) Vista Avenue Petchkasem 81, 3-story townhome with starting price of 2.99 million Baht (6) Vista Park Changwattna, 3-story townhome with starting price of 3.99 million Baht (7) Centric Scene Ratchavipha, newly conceptualized condominium with prices ranging from 2.5 – 5.55 million Baht and (8) Centric Scene Sukhumvit 64 with starting price of 2.8 million Baht.

Mr. Kree Dejchai further adds that as all projects, launched within the year, have been well achieved which is quite confident that the market would warmly welcome the three new projects as it had in the past. With outstandingly new designs and functions, high potential locations, competitive prices, rising demands, as well as the project’s value-for-money offering, it is expected that the new 2009 series would deliver satisfactory result and that the company would achieve its projected plan and targets.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

The wonders of Panatda's rooftop garden

       "Growing plants is like raising children, you get emotionally attached, when they grow up you feel good. It's even better than children because they never talk back at you.
       Just about everyone finds the idea of having a private garden within the confines of their home very appealing. It's the perfect place to relax.Wouldn't it be great if this garden could provide shade and double as a vegetable garden as well?
       Not only will you be increasing the green area, but you can eat fresh, delicious vegetables too.
       If you don't know what vegetables you'd like to plant, then maybe Panatda Tokiartrungruang, aka Aunty Neng, can give you a few pointers.
       This 54-year-old woman revamped the entire rooftop of her 5-storey shop-house into a most enviable vegetable garden, streaming with variety and vibrant colours.
       Panatda's garden is an award-winning vegetable garden in the rooftop category.She competed in the recent "Vegetable Garden in My House" contest at the National Herbs Exhibition in September.
       Her 30-square-wah shophouse is in the Sathon area of Bangkok. After recovering from heart surgery, her body gradually healed itself and became stronger. From then on she decided that she wanted to take good care of herself.
       Once she was able to walk up the five flights of stairs, Panatda set out to transform her shophouse rooftop into a hydroponic vegetable garden, where the fruits of her labour could be used in the kitchen or sold.
       Alas, the cost of hydroponics was just too high for her.
       Recycled garden
       Panatda previously earned a living in the recycling business, so she knows a thing or two about used materials and how to find them. It just so happened that next to her shophouse was a large recycling business.
       She decided that recycled and discarded materials would be the building blocks of her vegetable garden.
       It was her decision to use recycled materials that won the hearts of the judges at the competition.
       Old electric cable sheaths became a web to support greens and veggies as they become heavy with produce.
       The butterfly pea (anchan)is Panatda's baby: It blooms beautiful blue flowers throughout the floating garden as green beans slither in between.
       "Most people will use a steel frame for the greens to cling on and grow but steel is heavy and a conductor of heat. I don't think vegetables would want to be around a hot frame for support. There are strong winds on the rooftop as well which makes it prone to falling down," Aunty Neng said.
       "But using electric cable sheaths is the perfect solution because it's light-weight and not hot. Just connect them together, crisscross it like a net. If you don't like what you see, just change the pattern. And it's not expensive."
       An old laundry basket, used lanterns and the innards of a washing machine are a few examples of what Panatda has adapted to use as pots for her vegetables. A conventional garden pot might cost about 200 baht but Panatda's used materials cost only a fraction, or about 20-30 baht each.
       Old foam boxes are great garden pots because foam does not absorb heat. They are also perfectly suited for rooftops,because they are lightweight.
       Panatda also uses old clothes hangers, cupboards, old noodle stalls and PVC pipes for greens and flowers to cling to and flourish.
       "Washing pans or the old inner structure of drying machines are usually screened out by recycling shops because they don't have any monetary value, unlike the outer structure of washing machines which are made of steel. However they are ideal because there are holes which serve as a good water drainage system. I'd place a plastic cover inside first and then add soil in order to make watering the plants an easy job. Water drains out of the holes on the sides. It's only a few baht. It saves money and is rather durable," she explained.
       Panatda buys and shares vegetable seeds from her friends. Some blooms are left to mature so she collects the seeds for future
       cultivation. Her main gardening expense is soil:Bags of potting soil cost about 20 baht each.
       Aunty Neng does not use pesticides or chemicals. She plucks out frail or bad-looking leaves.
       If she finds insects that might be harmful then she cuts the branch and waits for new growth to replace it.
       Not only does this save money but the fruits of her labor taste really good,and are in high demand by everyone in the neighbourhood.
       "My house specialty is stir-fried green beans with minced pork, garlic and prik-khi-noo chilies. My green beans are very sweet. When they are ripe the harvest is bountiful which is why I sell some of my produce to nearby shops and somtam vendors. Oh! They love it and don't sell it but eat it themselves. They tell me my vegetables are very delicious and sweet when compared to what they usually buy in the market. My vegetables are really organic. They might not be big but their taste is. No matter how many veggies I have, they always sell out,"Panatda said .
       Butterfly pea the star of the garden
       Most of the space on Panatda's rooftop garden is dominated by butterfly pea flowers.There are butterfly pea blooms in a fresh blue variety, light blue and white colours.Some butterfly peas cling to the walls while others snuggle their way up into a makeshift archway that provides shade and shelter for an afternoon nap.
       Panatda explained that her fondness of the butterfly pea plant comes from the fact that it is easy to cultivate, grows fast, and is an epicurean's dream in the kitchen. The flower can be boiled and served as a healthy drink, and is a tasty snack when eaten fresh.It can be used as a seasoning, such as a side dish for chili paste (namprik), dipped in egg and fried, or mixed into fried scrambled eggs, to name just a few delights.
       Hence, Panatda selected the butterfly pea flower to be the star of her garden. She says drinking butterfly pea juice daily keeps her in good health: She feels strong and her joints and muscles do not feel weary.
       Every morning from 6am till 11am Panatda is working under the shade of her rooftop garden, with her radio to keep her company.
       Her chores include watering the plants,tilling the soil and taking care of her plants.But her core responsibility is to harvest the abundant butterfly pea flower. She has more than she can eat herself, so she sells the extra flowers.
       "I never thought of selling butterfly pea flowers as a serious profit-making scheme.I shared with my friends at first but some ate the flowers daily and they felt it would be appropriate if they paid for it instead. Now I sell fresh flowers and bottled butterfly pea juice at 10-15 baht per bottle," she said.
       "I collect the flowers and put them in the fridge for a week, then I sell them. At 20 baht per bag I sell about 10 bags a week for about 200 baht. Sometimes I boil butterfly pea juice and make merit. I have so many flowers I have to sell them at the market. At 20 baht per bloom I get a considerable amount."
       Secret to growing many greens and flowers in one pot
       The vegetable garden of Panatda is characterised by its rich variety. There are vegetables and then there are flowers and decorative plants, more than 50 species. She has planted basil, mint, green beans, garden pea, hot chilies, yellow chilies, water bamboo grass (ya-pai-nam), papaya, cassava, bananas,moringa, grenadine, pandanus, jasmine,sweet oleander, common lime and hibiscus:The list just goes on and on.
       Panatda said that she has always had a fondness for planting flowers and recalls someone telling her that growing flowers and vegetables together will reduce insect problems because they will pay attention to the flowers instead of the greens.
       "At first I didn't know much. I liked flowers so that's all I planted. But then an expert recommended I mix in vegetables. Each pot contains a mixture of flowers and vegetables,so they can help each other. Plants which are left to grow alone do not survive, but once I put them beside other pots they can benefit from the shade and reach maturity.
       "For example I put the aloe vera with butterfly pea, or the green beans with papaya and when they mature I can single them out in separate pots."
       Having a garden on a rooftop that is exposed to extremely hot temperatures calls for heavy morning watering.
       Panatda recommends that you water your plants generously until the water seeps out onto the base of the pot. Watering once in the morning is sufficient.
       Gardening and good health
       It's been two years since Panatda underwent heart surgery. She's transformed herself into a full-time rooftop gardener with the love and support of her husband and children.
       She used to rest in between the flights of stairs but now Aunty Neng casually makes it up and down the five-storey shophouse with no problem at all.
       Sometimes she carries a bag of earth on her way up, or she'll come down with a basket full of vegetables.
       "Each day is full of happiness for me when I come up here alone. My health has improved tremendously. I don't tire easily, unlike before.When I am in the garden, time flies and there is shade and small birds that fly in frequently,"Panatda said.
       "Being with plants keeps me fresh. I am thinking of building a small room in the corner at the back with a built-in bathroom so I don't have walk down to use the toilet.Growing plants is like raising children, you get emotionally attached, when they grow up you feel good. It's even better than children because they never talk back at you," she said, laughing.
       "But plants are emotionally fragile because if you forget to water them once, they droop and sag: So you need to take good care of them." she added.
       Before bidding goodbye, Panatda made sure mylife took home hundreds of butterfly pea seeds and a number of plants."It's not hard to grow. Once the plants grow you can eat it and reduce global warming as well."

PS keeps ambitious 30% growth target

       The listed developer Preuksa Real Estate Plc aims for continuous growth of around 30% next year as it plans to launch 48 projects worth 20-30 billion baht, said chief operating officer Prasert Taedullayasatit.
       Chief executive officer Thongma Vijitpongpun said the company expected to spend approximately 7.5 billion baht to acquire 50 plots of land for the development next year. One of the plots in the Rama II area is for a prefabrication manufacturing factory to support its growth plan.
       A few plots will be in provinces such as Chon Buri, Phuket and Khon Kaen,where the company plans to develop townhouses and single houses priced between two million and 2.5 million baht each.
       The prefabrication facility will cost around 700-800 million baht and cover 100,000 square metres. Its existing facility in Pathum Thani has reached its full capacity using 100,000 sq m, so the company needs another factory.
       Expanding abroad is another growth strategy for Preuksa. The company has already engaged in projects with a combined value of around 3 billion baht in Bangalore, India, and Haiphong, Vietnam. It is now looking at the Maldives,where the island state's housing authority needs to develop around 1,000 condominium units for its people.
       Mr Thongma said a Maldives deal,worth around US$10 million, would likely take place next year. Preuksa projects 4-6% of its total business in 2010 will come from projects in other countries.
       Mr Prasert said Preuksa outsourced the construction of a condominium project, Ivy Thong Lor, for the first time as the company wanted to focus its fleets on the construction of townhouses and single houses.
       PS launched 17 projects worth 8.96 billion baht in the first three quarters and plan another 17 projects worth about 10 billion baht in the final quarter of 2009.
       Among new projects, there will be a new townhouse brand, Urbano, worth 600 million baht in the Sukhaphiban 3 area. Its Seed Theme is a new high-end condominium brand to be launched this year.
       The company posted 651 million baht of net profit in the third quarter, up 15%year-on-year from 565 million baht on total revenue of 3.844 billion baht, up 19% year-on-year from 3.233 billion baht.
       Its nine-month net profit was 1.978 billion baht, up 32% year-on-year from 1.497 billion baht, on total revenue of 11.287 billion baht, up 29% from 8.75 billion baht.
       The company has backlog sales of 15.21 billion baht, with 8.33 billion ready to transfer this year, meaning it would exceed its full-year revenue target of 17 billion baht. Sales for the first nine months were 15.046 billion baht, up 13.1% from the same period last year.
       Mr Thongma said PS maintains a favourable outlook next year though expiring tax incentives mean prices will rise by 6-7%.
       PS shares closed yesterday on the Stock Exchange of Thailand at 15.40 baht,down 10 satang, in trade worth 58.52 million baht.

Sunday, November 8, 2009

Murdoch outbids Crowe for mansion

       Lachlan Murdoch paid A$23 million (US$21 million) to buy France's former consulate in Sydney's eastern suburbs, setting an Australian auction record for a single house and beating out actor Russell Crowe.
       The six-bedroom estate on Victoria Road in Bellevue Hill, known as Le Manoir, was owned by the French government since 1956 and has ocean and harbour views, said Michael Pallier, the principal at Raine & Horne Double Bay,which ran the sale.
       The auction, attended personally by Murdoch, was conducted at 6 pm on Thursday and lasted 10 minutes.
       There weren't any signs of a global financial crisis at the auction with 10 registered bidders going hammer and tongs at it, Pallier said by phone. It was one of a handful of Sydney's eastern suburb's trophy homes and they rarely become available.
       Lachlan,38, is the eldest son of News Corp chairman Rupert Murdoch. Born in Melbourne in 1931, Rupert Murdoch built News Corp into a global media company with assets including Fox News,the Wall Street Journal and the MySpace social-networking website, after inheriting Adelaide newspaper assets from his own father, Keith. The News Corp chairman was in Australia this week.
       The sale was reported earlier in the Australian Financial Review , which said Crowe monitored the sale via the internet.
       Lachlan Murdoch could not immediately be reached at the Sydney office of his private investment company Illyria Pty.
       "Le Manoir is on 4,097 square metres (1.01 acres) of land with panoramic views,a tennis court, swimming pool and a three-car garage," Pallier said. The house was built in 1926.
       "There's probably only a handful of homes that are in Bellevue Hill which sit on over an acre of land, so a substantial offering, a very unique offering," Damien Cooley, director and auctioneer, Cooley Auctions, said by phone yesterday."Topend real estate is really starting to come good. It's been challenging for the last few years, particularly with the global financial crisis."
       "The French government paid 26,000 Australian pounds for the property in 1956 and the house has only had two owners," Cooley said.

PHROM PHONG CONDO SELLS OUT IN ONE DAY

       The long-standing business mantra - location, location, location - has again worked its magic for Noble Development Plc,which for the second time this year sold all the units in a new condominium within one day of its launch.
       Noble Refine is located in Sukhumvit Soi 26, just 180 metres from the Phrom Phong BTS station. There is no denying its appeal,what with the Emporium Department Store,Benchasiri Park and Villa supermarket all within walking distance.
       This project, with 234 units, obtained an average price of 105,000 baht a square metre during the late September launch, higher than the 95,000 baht that the 198 units of Noble Reform in Soi Ari in the Phahon Yothin area fetched in March.
       Company president Thongchai Busrapan said that other factors that ensured success included his company's in-depth knowledge of the market plus loyal customers who were willing to make additional investments in the new development.
       "It's true we are willing to spend more on the land plot, but I have to say we don't pay too much - these prices are known in the market. Others buy land at prices close to ours but we choose good plots; when we are confident that the location will work, we buy it,'' he said.
       While some might think that more than 100,000 baht a square metre of condominium space is already very steep and can't get any higher, Mr Thongchai pointed out that prices in Thailand are still cheaper than in some neighbouring countries, while the rental returns are better.
       "I understand that in the UK, Hong Kong and Singapore the rental return is only 3-4%,while here it's still strong at around 5-8%. It depends on the PE [price/earnings] ratio: if the return is good people will invest and the price can rise - there is room for this.''
       Then too, land prices and construction costs are unlikely to drop in the future, which means 100,000 baht a square metre cannot be considered to be expensive.
       Noble is not the only property company doing well.
       Mr Thongchai mentioned that other projects launched recently have also found buyers, with the market having picked up over the past two to three months from the nadir it reached last April.
       Rather than the glimmers of global economic recovery that have become visible recently, it is the low interest rates that have spurred the market.
       "Deposit rates are pretty low and this drives money out of savings accounts into other assets such as property.''
       Another factor propelling the market forward is that a large number of people have come to accept the various problems within the country are nothing new to them anymore because the impact has dragged on for so long.
       That said, Mr Thongchai himself continues to be concerned about the political situation, and has questions about what will happen next.
       "If this government is badly discredited I don't know how long it will stay in power, and if it cannot remain in power there will be new elections. When the prime minister is asked whether he is ready for new elections, he says he is and that he will definitely win,but I'm not sure everyone agrees with him.
       "And if the other side comes back to power what will happen? They would try to bring Thaksin back and that would lead to red, yellow and blue shirts demonstrating again.''
       Looking ahead, Mr Thongchai warned that when the property tax breaks end in March next year the general market would slow down for a spell.
       This does not apply to new condominiums,however, because buyers already know they will not benefit from the incentives when these new buildings are completed in two to three years' time.
       From now until the tax breaks expire in March, everything that is completed should sell well, including single houses and townhouses, because some buyers want to move in right away.
       The tax breaks are substantial, with the special business tax having been cut from 3.3% to 0.11%, transfer fee from 2% to 0.01%and mortgage registration fee from 1% to 0.01%.
       While Noble and other developers would like the government to extend the breaks,Mr Thongchai acknowledges that it might not be necessary to do so because global circumstances have changed since last March,when it was uncertain how this market would be affected by the turbulence overseas.
       As he sees it, the global economy has already passed through the worst point and now it is more about how long-term fund-
       mentals and economic mechanisms will adjust themselves.``Earlier everyone sold goods to America,and although America is not a small country its population is not that large. Yet this population consumed 25% of global production.Other countries such as India and China, which have much greater populations,did not consume more than 10% of what the US did. It's quite strange.
       "So Americans bought a lot of things -we shipped our goods for sale there and got money in return. The money we got was the US dollar and we went and deposited this with [the US] too. With so much money deposited there it pushed their interest rates low, and this in turn led to a real estate bubble that also affected us.
       "But now Americans do not have that much money to buy things from us and this imbalance faces a major adjustment. This adjustment will lead to there being both opportunity and danger in every business.''
       Mr Thongchai added that these changes mean that Asian countries will be exporting less and will counterbalance this by focusing on domestic consumption. Under this strategy, a lot of funds will be invested under various policies, such as infrastructure development. Developing infrastructure directly helps the property market because it opens new locations for development.
       "But all this is long term - we won't see it in the next one or two years.''